Bay Area Sea Level Rise and Wetland Ecosystem Change Through Time

Laura Cunningham. SF Bay 500 years BP (Before Present). Looking eastward from the top of Nob Hill.

Refining the scope

After I spent some time exploring publications, websites, and online tools that analyze and visualize projected sea level rise and associated impacts for the Bay Area, I decided another interactive "viewer" is not what the world needs! Through this research, I learned that tidal marshes provide a wide variety of ecosystem services to business, communities, and many species of fish and wildlife, as well as being the mega-"buffers" to the impacts of floods and extreme events that are associated with climate change and rising sea levels. By focusing on visualizing sea level elevation boundaries and tidal marsh boundaries (including mudflats) over a long period of time (from the recent glacial maximum to 100 years into the future), some interesting patterns emerge. As I become a "landscape sleuth", my goals for the project have shifted.

Goals

To demonstrate how change and movement of the sea and tidal wetlands are integral to the Bay. The web of these moving interrelationships sustains the landscape we live on.
To inspire a sense of place in the changing landscape and a connection to a continuum of time that goes beyond the immediate present and the distant future.
As the rate of change increases and the impacts to these systems become variable, careful observation and strategic actions will help us adapt with the landscape.

Laura Cunningham. Grizzlies gather around a coast live oak to eat acorns 500 years ago. Albany Hill and the Bay in the distance. 2005

Audience

Museum visitors; families, youth, interested individuals.
Gray Area gallery visitors; young professionals, creative technologists, artists.
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise stakeholders; data producers, data managers, policy makers, community organizations, conservation biologists, ecologists, academics.

Visitor/User Experience Ideas

A decentralized installation featuring interactive media and objects that explore the changing sea levels and wetland ecosystems represented in these data and time periods:
- Post-glacial sea level rise flooding of the San Francisco Bay (18,000 - 2,000 BP)
- Recent-past (1800) to present-day sea levels of the San Francisco Bay.
- Historic (1800) and present-day Tidal Marsh habitat boundaries.
- Present-day restoration project sites.
- Future (2100) Sea Level Rise scenarios; Low (2ft) and High (6ft).
- Future (2100) Tidal Marsh habitat boundaries; Low sediment and low inundation (2ft) versus High sediment and high inundation (6ft).

Patterns: post-glacial Sea level rise

Screen shot of sea level boundary of the SF Bay 4,000 years BP (before present). — Screen shot of sea level boundary of the SF Bay **4,000** years BP (before present).

recent-past (1800) to present day sea levels

Historical (1800's) sea level (Elevation at observed high tide derived from Coast Survey records in "Historical Baylands" database EcoAtlas.org, SFEI. 1998).

Future (2100) sea level inundation

Projected sea level rise inundation, 2ft. 2100. (NOAA Climate Explorer). — Projected sea level rise inundation, **2ft. 2100**. (NOAA Climate Explorer).

Screen shot of sea level boundary of the SF Bay 2,000 years BP. — Screen shot of sea level boundary of the SF Bay **2,000 years** BP.

Modern sea level (elevation at mean higher high water derived from Bay Area Aquatic Resources Inventory (BAARI, 2011. SFEI). — Modern sea level (elevation at mean higher high water derived from Bay Area Aquatic Resources Inventory (BAARI, 2011. SFEI).

Projected sea level rise inundation, 6ft. 2100                                (NOAA Climate Explorer). — Projected sea level rise inundation, **6ft. 2100** (NOAA Climate Explorer).

Patterns: post-glacial tidal wetland habitat change

Laura Cunningham. Late holocene tidal marsh, South Bay. From State of Change. 2010. — Laura Cunningham. Late holocene tidal marsh, South Bay. From *State of Change.* 2010.

Interglacial timeline sketch from Laura Cunningham, State of Change, 2010. — Interglacial timeline sketch from Laura Cunningham, *State of Change,* 2010.

Historic Tidal Marsh extent (1800's)

Historic tidal marsh, 1800's. "Historical Baylands" database, EcoAtlas.org,  SFEI, 1998. — Historic tidal marsh, 1800's. "Historical Baylands" database, EcoAtlas.org, SFEI, 1998.

Current Tidal Marsh extent (2011)

Modern tidal marsh (bright green), 2011. Bay Area Aquatic Resources Inventory (BAARI, SFEI). 10% of historic tidal marsh remains. 90% has been filled, diked/muted, converted into salt ponds, or developed.

Future Tidal Marsh Projections (2100)

These maps represent the first models that take into account the ability of marshes to "keep up" with the pace of sea level rise.

2100 Non-Diked Projected Tidal Marsh (LOW), approx 1.64ft sea level inundation and low sediment supply. Future San Francisco Bay Tidal Marshes web application. Point Blue Conservation Science. 2014. About the data — **2100 Non-Diked Projected Tidal Marsh** (LOW), approx 1.64ft sea level inundation and low sediment supply. Future San Francisco Bay Tidal Marshes web application. Point Blue Conservation Science. 2014. About the data

Holocene animals (bison and horse ancestors) of the San Francisco "river valley". Laura Cunningham.

I cannot decide whether to represent a more reduced (dramatic) version of remaining tidal marsh (bottom left) or a more "nuanced"/modified representation of CURRENT tidal marsh (bottom right).